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Procedural functionality enables visual creators to rapidly edit, explore alternatives, and fine-tune artwork in many domains including illustration, motion graphics, and interactive animation. Symbolic procedural tools, such as textual programming languages, are highly expressive but often limit directly manipulating concrete artwork; whereas direct manipulation tools support some procedural expression but limit creators to pre-defined behaviors and inputs. Inspired by visions of using geometric input to create procedural relationships, we identify an opportunity to use vector geometry from artwork to specify expressive user-defined procedural functions. We present Drawing Transforms (DTs), a technique that enables the use of any drawing to procedurally transform the stylistic, spatial, and temporal properties of target artwork. We apply DTs in a prototype motion graphics system to author continuous and discrete transformations, modify multiple elements in a composition simultaneously, create animations, and control fine-grained procedural instantiation. We discuss how DTs can unify procedural authoring through direct manipulation across visual media domains. 

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.